5 trillion Start new energy strategy plan
According to the "Securities Times" Research Center and WIND statistics show that the main capital this month turned into lithium stocks. Specific circumstances, 29 the concept of trading in the stock battery was in June, net outflow of funds, the sector in June was about 1.75438 billion yuan of total capital outflow, daily outflow of about 92,335,800 yuan. With A shares rebounded in July, turned into the main capital funds plate, the plate since July, the total inflow of capital of about 144,068,300 yuan, the average daily amount of about 8.4746 million yuan capital inflows, capital inflows into the week was the main increases, the plate this week, the total net inflow of funds 134,466,200 yuan, the average daily volume of 26,893,300 yuan capital inflows.
Since July, the main inflow of funds into the stock plate are 17, which, in Lingnan (15.08,0.10,0.67%) (134,884,660 yuan) integrated into the flight (20.00,0.17,0.86%) (93,350,820 yuan) , TCL Group (4.00, -0.03, -0.74%) (60,877,520 yuan), Kinwa (6.11, -0.06, -0.97%) (47,323,210 yuan), China Baoan (9.69, -0.09, -0.92% ) (46,001,760 yuan), Fluoride (46.55, -0.24, -0.51%) (30,129,990 yuan), Salt Lake Group (18.89, -0.21, -1.10%) (19,813,770 yuan), Jiangsu Guotai (23.83, - 0.15, -0.63%) (18,866,250 yuan), the new chou (43.350, -0.01, -0.02%) (18,713,270 yuan) and 9 the highest inflow of funds the main stocks; July the main stocks of capital outflows have 12 and capital outflows of more than 30 million yuan of stock are four, namely: Wolong Electric (16.22, -0.15, -0.92%) (149,029,580 yuan), Foshan Lighting (13.03, -0.09, -0.69%) (106 576 970 million), Fosugufen (12.27, -0.08, -0.65%) (46,090,070 yuan), sailing shares (12.82, -0.08, -0.62%) (35,080,470 yuan).
Since July, the concept of index 2126.18 points lithium opening, close to 23 points to 2333.86 points, gained 205.53 points, or 9.66%. The index touched on July 5, the recent low thereafter unilateral rising trend, the current 60-day moving average at a certain resistance. July 1 to July 16 rose between 1.64% and an amplitude of 11.56%. This week is the rapid rise in the index showing the trend, the concept of index of lithium on Monday opened slightly lower to 2136.17 points as of Friday's close, the index was at 2333.86 points, gained 170.60 points, or 7.89%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index 1.79 percentage points. This month, there have been 18 lithium stocks outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, representing the total number of lithium stocks 58.62%, which rose more than 12% of stocks are integrated into the flight, in Lingnan, Hengdian DMEGC (16.90 , 0.04,0.24%), batteries Desai (23.96, -0.39, -1.60%), Rui Technology (12.25, -0.20, -1.61%), Salt Lake Group, China Baoan, Kane shares (13.66,0.34,2.55 %), which has been integrated into the flight this month, rose 74.06, behind Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share gains in the first.
From the present situation of the global lithium industry, batteries and materials to gain an absolute market share in Japan and South Korea, Japan and South Korea leading enterprise technology. Global lithium industry is mainly concentrated in Japan, China and South Korea three, along with China, South Korea Li-ion battery manufacturing technology development and promotion of Japanese lithium battery shipments ratio decreased. China Li-ion battery materials enterprises have developed rapidly, but the comprehensive technical strength, Japan, South Korea's leading enterprises are still in that position, behind China, Japan, about 2-3 years, in large but not strong, with great room for improvement.
In recent years, the electric bicycle market showed a substantial increase due to growing environmental awareness. Electric bicycle with no use of fossil fuels, and the use of relatively cheap prices, solve the metropolitan area parking and traffic congestion, air and noise pollution is not the four advantages. Chinese electric bike market in the world accounting for about 95%, 90% of which use lead-acid batteries, nickel metal hydride battery is only 8%, and other lithium-ion battery is only 2% of estimated future will be diverted to the main lithium-ion battery. Due to cost reasons, the electric bicycle to use lead-acid battery-based pollution, gradually transition to lithium-ion battery. Assuming a Ebike need 30 lithium iron phosphate batteries, electric bike batteries estimated global market size of 15.7 billion yuan from 2006 to 2010 growth of $ 32 billion.
In addition, the global electric scooter and electric wheelchair at an annual rate of 7% -10% to maintain growth, assuming an electric scooter or electric wheelchair needs 60 iron phosphate lithium battery, estimated electric scooter and electric wheelchair battery market value of 1.8 billion by 2006, growing to $ 2.5 billion in 2010.
According to Guohai latest estimates show that by 2010 the global electric tools, electric bicycles, electric scooter and electric wheelchair battery market demand exceeded NT $ 254.8 billion (equivalent to 7.7 billion), is the world's lithium-ion battery current market scale of 1 times, and continues to maintain steady growth. With lithium-ion battery applications in the rising share of the market, new market demand is expanding rapidly.
More concerned about the future of electric cars will drive the growth of more than ten times the number of lithium battery materials. The future of the world's major automobile manufacturers from the electric vehicle production and sales figures: by 2009 the share of small lithium battery electric vehicles, electric vehicles use nickel-metal hydride batteries as a power source (10.15,0.34,3.47%); from 2010 start, car manufacturers began to substantially increase the proportion of lithium batteries as a power source for the 2010-2013 lithium battery electric vehicles rapidly growing, and in 2013 reached 2.26 million, an average annual compound growth rate of 124.78%, 2013 - 2018 will enter a stage of steady development in 2018 to nearly 600 million, an average annual compound growth rate of 20.90%. It is estimated that a pure electric vehicles require 40-50 kg of cathode materials and electrolyte, a single mobile phone battery consumption is about a million times. According to estimates, only required to produce 100 million electric cars lithium-ion battery materials, lithium battery materials will be the world's total demand of the times. Therefore, the promotion of electric vehicles lithium-ion battery will drive the demand for materials showing explosive growth.
Lithium battery industry-related stocks are more institutions that believe that business ability, is an industry leader in technology, there is a certain scale, the future production capacity expansion or extension of industrial chain development of the industry related companies to go beyond, with the long-term investment value. Such as CITIC Guoan (11.43, -0.06, -0.52%), a complete industrial chain of lithium batteries have greater room for expansion; Tibet Mining (28.14, -0.29, -1.02%), sitting on lithium resource "crown jewel" be significantly improved by the project lithium carbonate production capacity, the company's funds bottleneck is expected to be resolved, the future of lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to squeeze into the world; Shanshangufen (17.12, -0.13, -0.75%), lithium material was gratifying, performance, or will meet to explosive growth, the company look at the layout of domestic and foreign resources with partners to improve the industrial chain of lithium; when the rise (58.650, -0.25, -0.42%), professional cathode material of lithium leading enterprises, marriage lithium giants, the high end market .
According to the State Securities (12.80,0.16,1.27%) reported the latest research to provide investment advice, car battery has been designed to stabilize the product, process changes from a loosely organized, and gradually form a division of society, the formation of a reasonable chain, battery companies are also beginning to profit from a loss. However, the current-related companies are only in small batch production, production and marketing costs are high, and species, relative to a single brand, the company's main task is to enable the community to accept the product, to create first-mover advantage and brand effect. Away from mass production there is a long way to go. Support of national policy will play a crucial role in the gradual increase in government support is expected, the lithium battery demand will gradually increase, and the corresponding investment opportunities will increase this trend of the future. And technical content in accordance with the level of gross margin to select, in descending order is the separator, electrolyte, cathode material. Recommendations concern: Fosugufen, Fluoride, Jiangsu Guotai, when the rise of technology, CITIC Guoan; for batteries recommended by manufacturers concerned about the sailing shares.
CITIC Guoan Lithium inflection point as the catalyst performance
Rich reserves of lithium resources: Qinghai subsidiary of National Security with the West Salt Lake taijnar exclusive exploration rights, the salt lake brine rich in lithium, potassium, boron, magnesium, reserves of lithium chloride, 3.08 million tons, 26.56 million tons of potassium chloride, boron oxide 1.63 million tons, the potential economic value of 170 billion yuan. The company is actively seeking taijnar East Salt Lake and a Liping mining rights, resources exist to expand the amount of control possible.
Cathode materials for lithium batteries: the company-owned CITIC Guoan MGL Power Technology Co., Ltd. (accounting for 90%) occupy the lithium cobalt oxide products 40% domestic market share, but also the only large-scale domestic production of lithium ion secondary batteries the manufacturers. Is currently the largest lithium cobalt oxide cathode materials for lithium and lithium manganese oxide manufacturers. Companies to speed up the generation of lithium-ion battery materials for lithium manganese oxide, lithium nickel pace of industrialization and marketization, and has made great progress.
Begun to take form a complete industrial chain of lithium battery: lithium battery company is committed to building a complete upstream and downstream industry chain, the ordinary lithium - battery grade lithium carbonate - battery cathode material - lithium batteries. Japan's Toyota through now and the Chamber of Commerce House, Chengdu, fly to open high-energy chemical industry signed a letter of intent. Toyota Tsusho's cooperation with Japan to advance the capacity of lithium carbonate sales after expansion of overseas markets, while not excluding the two sides have further cooperation in the battery, the current forms of cooperation are not yet formalized. Expected in 2010, the joint venture to produce annual output of not less than 5,000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate.
Sealand Securities believes that the basic assumptions :1,2010-2012 lithium carbonate price 45,000 yuan, 50,000 yuan, 55,000 yuan / ton; 2,2010-2012 production of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate in the company, 1.5 million tons, 2 million tons. Can be predicted, the company 2010-2012 earnings per share were 0.36,0.50,0.75 yuan. The company has the longest lithium battery industry chain is expected to benefit from the full range of power and energy storage needs change; benefit of its triple play cable business, the business sector has been at the bottom of potash, salt lake resources, integrated development or a surprise, comprehensive point of view, the operating conditions of space and up were significantly greater than the probability of downward, agriculture and the development of new energy industry is expected to become the turning point of the catalyst occurs, for the first time to "buy" rating.
Lithium stocks of capital flows since the list this month
Wind power leading enterprises to benefit from industry consolidation
According to the "Securities Times" Research Center and WIND statistics show that wind power has recently settled in the main signs of money. Specific conditions, wind power 37 stock funds in June was out, the sector in June was about 1.71946 billion yuan of total capital outflow, daily outflow of about 90,498,100 yuan. With A shares rebounded in July, the main outflow was significantly reduced, the plate since July total outflow of about 88.0493 million yuan, the average daily amount of about 5,179,370 yuan of capital outflows, and into the main capital is obviously starting this week, the net into the plate this week, the total net inflow of funds 163,807,600 yuan, the average daily volume of 9.6357 million yuan capital inflows.
Since July, the main inflow of capital stock, 24, of which, TBEA (16.11,0.29,1.83%) (99,881,800 yuan), Goldwind (18.50,0.30,1.65%) (94,434,590 yuan), GD (3.57, -0.05, -1.38%) (61,306,000 yuan), Silver Star Energy (23,740,350 yuan), ST Nengshan (22,346,090 yuan), Jiuding new material (11.96,0.35,3.01%) (19,636,380 yuan) , Fujian Electric Power (8.22, -0.14, -1.67%) (18,653,030 yuan) and seven main capital inflows, stocks up; on 13 July the main stocks of capital outflows, China First Heavy Industries (5.27, -0.01, - 0.19%), Jilin Power Share (4.70, -0.06, -1.26%), Eastern Electricity, Sinoma Technology (36.70,0.41,1.13%), and four out of stock funds in excess of 30 million yuan.
Since July, the concept of wind power index opened 2866.12 points, to 23 points to close at 3082.92 points, gained 210.73 points, or 7.34%. The index in the week before the performance of shock consolidation form, July 1 to July 16 fell between 0.86% and an amplitude of 5.68%. The index is up this week, the main range, the concept of wind power on Monday opened slightly lower index, the index point along the way from the 2820.93 line, as of Friday's close, the index closed at 3082.92 points, gained 240.18 points, or 8.27%, outperforming the The Shanghai Composite Index 2.17 percent. This month, there have been 21 wind power stocks outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, the concept of wind power accounted for 56.76% shares, which rose more than 15% of the stocks have Jiuding new material (37.00%), Silver Star Energy (19.49%) Goldwind (18.97%), Huayi Electric (12.62,0.00,0.00%) (17.72%), Fujian Electric Power (15.45%).
Global wind power wind power industry overcapacity situation will gradually ease. Data show that in 2009, the world's total installed wind power capacity reached 158 million kilowatts, an increase of 31%, higher than the average growth rate over the past decade. May 2010, the domestic wind turbine output 3.7854 million kilowatts, an increase of 32.55%. Onshore 1.5MW wind power has become the main model, a number of companies are developing or have developed a 2MW and above models, future models will be the main land-based wind power more than 2MW model conversion. Host the price of wind power has dropped to 4500 yuan / kilowatt and competitive. The future growth of onshore wind power will gradually return to normal.
According to the plan, by 2020 wind power capacity has reached 150 million kilowatts, the next 10 years the average annual installed capacity of 1200-1300 MW. Will be built in Gansu, Xinjiang, Hebei, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu provinces and seven six million kilowatts of wind power base. Additional units from the year 2009, 13 million kilowatts of view, wind power capacity in new units have reached the average. August 2009, the State Council executive meeting of the deployment of suppression of excess capacity in some industries and duplication, and guide the healthy development of industries, including wind power industry list. Currently, the field of wind power in China machine manufacturer about seven, eighty, to the end of 2009, production capacity will reach 20 million kilowatts, has excess capacity. Internationally, the well-known wind power business six or seven. In comparison, China's wind power equipment market diversification, competitiveness is still relatively low. Wind power industry is still a sunrise industry, but because of the rapid development in recent years, some excess capacity, industry consolidation and the next few years to absorb the excess capacity of the main, growth has slowed. Inhibition of excess capacity will suppress the field of blind investment in wind power, will help revitalize the industry stronger. For leading companies, not only will not be affected, but also because industry consolidation and disorderly competition eased benefit.
CSC in the industry report that the rapid growth of wind power will soon be over, not to give too high valuation. However, companies should be concerned about the future development of the following two categories: large-capacity unit manufacturer. Ministry of Industry published in April 2010, the "wind power equipment manufacturing industry access standards" (draft), which refers to the wind turbine manufacturers must have the production capacity of 2.5 MW and above, stand-alone, annual production of 1 million kilowatts above the necessary conditions of production and all production facilities. At present, China's wind power from the current situation of the machine, the machine can meet the above criteria are not more than ten manufacturers. While the "standard" also pointed out that the establishment of enterprises in the production, the wind turbine manufacturers set up to meet the national industrial policy and wind power equipment manufacturing industry development planning, project investment in the proportion of own funds shall not be less than 30%, and should have 5 years working experience large mechanical and electrical industry. This means that for new entrants to set a higher financial barriers and technical barriers.
Offshore wind turbine manufacturer. National Energy Board in May launched a total of 100 million kilowatts of wind power offshore bidding round. 2 offshore wind power project located in the Jiangsu coastal, Sheyang two, the installed capacity of 300,000 kilowatts; two "intertidal zone" project is located in Dafeng and Dongtai, of 20 million kilowatts. Offshore wind power technology is difficult, lifting and transportation costs are high, the equipment requirements are very strict, reflecting the company's comprehensive strength.
Huatai Securities believes that the scale of emerging energy planning than the market expected wind power is unlikely. As China's wind energy resources are mainly concentrated in the "Three North", but "Three North" local consumptive power is weak, and the power grid construction is lagging behind, the wind power output capability is poor, leading to future wind power development will be significantly constrained by the grid construction . Therefore, the scale of wind power by 2015, 90 million kilowatts, about the size of its energy use 059 million tons of standard coal.
National Securities believes that, with the development of wind power, a number of key components such as blades, wind power inverter is also accelerating the localization. Times New Materials (31.01,0.09,0.29%) developed leaves for the weak wind region has achieved mass production. Aspects of wind power inverter, Hidenobu shares (33.09, -0.06, -0.18%), Hunan Electric shares (23.75,0.35,1.50%), NARI (40.28, -0.44, -1.08%) and other companies are developing related products. Stock Recommendations focus on Hunan Electric shares (600,416).
Goldwind performance secure sufficient orders
Interim results notice: January to June 2010 the company expects net profit growth of 0-50% over the previous year. Same period last year net profit: 535 million yuan. Performance is due to changes in the normal development of the company's business, growth in unit sales remained stable. As of March 31, 2010, the company pending order total 3349.5MW, including the 750kW unit 117MW, 1.5MW unit 3225MW, 2.5MW unit 7.5MW. In addition to these orders, there have been successful but not formally signed the order total 1483.5MW.
Leading wind power equipment: The company is the largest manufacturer of wind turbine machine, one of the domestic product in 2008, new wind power installed capacity accounted for 18%. Machine manufacturing and sales company based on the expansion of wind power technology and wind farm development and sales service profit model. 2008 through the acquisition of shares in the German energy company VENSYS 70% stake in the company became the first independent R & D capabilities with full and complete independent intellectual property rights of the wind power machine manufacturer.
Close to two shareholders: the company's second-largest shareholder of China Water Investment Group Corporation has been incorporated into the root of China Three Gorges Project Development Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Three Gorges Project Corporation held by the State Water Investment Group Corporation's largest shareholder 33.89% stake in wind energy company. At the same time, the Three Gorges Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Yangtze New Energy Development Co., Ltd. also purchased Investor Real Estate Development Co., Xinjiang Wind Energy Company held 9.44% of the shares. Currently Three Gorges Project Corporation together hold 43.33% stake in wind energy company. On the other hand, the SASAC Xinjiang, Xinjiang Changyuan Water Group Limited (acting both as a person) together hold 56.67% stake in wind energy company.
Industry support: According to the Xinjiang Wind Power is developing long-term development goals by 2010, Xinjiang's total installed capacity of wind power installed capacity of electric power ratio of the total size of more than 5%, by 2020 the scale of delivery of wind power in Xinjiang. Urumqi Economic and Technological Development Zone Industrial Park started the construction of wind power, and actively create "China Wind Valley" concept. At present, the zone has been formed by the wind the wind power technology-driven industry clusters, industrial park started construction of wind power, Denmark LM, Xi's Xiang, Cathay Xin Feng, Chinese and foreign enterprises and enterprises have entered the industrial park is expected to in 2010 the wind power industry park will reach ten billion yuan output value.
Fans Order: China's wind power market maintained rapid growth, the company sufficient orders, not only 1.5MW unit to obtain a large number of orders, 750kW unit is still favored by the market. As of March 31, 2010, the company pending order total 3349.5MW, including the 750kW unit 117MW, 1.5MW unit 3225MW, 2.5MW unit 7.5MW. In addition to these orders, there have been successful but not formally signed the order total 1483.5MW.
Gao Hua Securities Company to give a "buy" rating. Goldwind rating will be raised to buy from neutral, because the stock based on discounted cash flow than our 12-month target price of 20 yuan (unadjusted) there is 24% potential upside. Goldwind is expected to benefit from China's strong growth of wind power installed capacity (expected 2009-2015 CAGR of 27%).
TBEA 85% share of the domestic wind turbine
Proposed issuance of new shares: not intended for public issuance of more than 35,000 shares, issue price of not less than 20 trading days before the prospectus announcement stock price or the previous trading day's price, as the estimated net proceeds from 3.69805 billion yuan, improvement projects intended for high pressure and export base construction projects, HVDC converter transformer upgrade the industrial structure transformation projects, special high-voltage AC-DC transformer bushing domestic construction projects, special high-voltage substation National Engineering Laboratory upgrading projects, high pressure and special cable projects, projects in northern Sudan, Khartoum, Sudan, eastern power grid projects.
Major equipment manufacturing industry leader: It is the core of China's major equipment manufacturing industry key enterprises, have the right to operate foreign economic and technical cooperation projects and state aid qualification, the company has always focused on the "transmission, new energy, new materials," the three areas, is the rare transformer with independent intellectual property rights of manufacturers, in particular, and DC EHV transformer's core technology has reached the international level, the high-end transformer in the domestic market now accounts for 30% share, 500KV HVDC converter transformer, 750KV level reactors and other products with domestic monopoly.
A joint venture company, Xinjiang New Energy Co., Ltd. (the company holding 72.95%) is China's largest specialized in solar energy development and utilization of high-tech companies, has an annual output capacity of 4100KW solar energy applications, completed by the end of 2006 commissioning of a 20MW project, two, three planning production capacity is 50MW and 30MW, the company's annual net profit of 09 - 723,800 yuan; January 2008 investment of 300 million to set up TBEA polysilicon (accounting 75%), the 1,500 tons / year polysilicon projects are under construction (as of late 2009, the progress of the project is 100% capacity of 1500 tons is expected in 2010), shareholder approval in November to increase their investment in the company 300 million capital increase After the company's total investment 600 million yuan of registered capital of 85.71%; December Merchants Bank Trust commissioned economic Xinjiang silicon industry to increase no more than RMB 240 million in August 2009, TBEA Xinjiang Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. The first polysilicon ingot furnace trial production successfully.
Wind energy concept: indirect equity participation by Xinjiang new energy Xinjiang Gold Wind Technology is the largest wind turbine manufacturer, the company registered capital of 32.3 million yuan, with annual output of 200 large-scale wind turbine production capacity, its products made in China 85% market share of fans.
Huatai Securities to give the company "overweight" rating. 2010-2012 is expected, the company net profit was 17.7,21.9,27.8 billion, earnings per share 0.98,1.22,1.54. Maintain "overweight" rating.
Kane share three highest quarterly increase of 115% pre-
Disclosure in 2010, the paper's reporting period income 30,173.99 million, an increase of 61.77%, gross profit margin 39.12%; Battery income 7,279.90 million, an increase of 31.47%, 26.2% gross margin. Second half of 2010, the company will continue to improve product quality, enhance market development, strengthening internal management and control, for the year to achieve better business performance. January to September in 2010 net profit rose 85% -115% in 2009 net profit of 36.0638 million yuan from January to September. Net profit growth was mainly due to sales revenue growth, profitability increased.
The company has a monopoly advantage. Currently only two worldwide to produce series electrolytic capacitor paper manufacturers (another Japanese NKK), as the only company, the world's second series of electrolytic capacitor paper manufacturers in the domestic paper industry at a relatively electrolytic capacitor monopoly and maintain a high margin level, and was named "China Electronic Components hundred enterprises" one.
Lithium-ion battery: June 2009 held by the Group completed the acquisition of Kane Kane battery 60% of the shares, the purchase price of 73.4685 million yuan; acquisition of Eagle Wu Kane held 16.22% stake in the battery, the price 19.8609 million yuan; acquisition of Wang Chung-wei held by Kay 2.58% of the shares ex-battery, the price 3.1591 million yuan; holds a total of 78.8%. The assessment predicted that Kane battery in 2010 and 2011, net profit after tax of up to 16.9271 million yuan and 21.9531 million yuan, equity transfer Fang Kaien Group, Eagle and King Wu Chung-wei were promised, if the net profit of less than previous projections, compensation in cash, Inc. (May 2010 compensation paid by the controlling shareholder of 2.566 million yuan). Kane's main battery products for high magnification and high-rate charge-discharge nickel-hydrogen batteries and lithium-ion battery, the first half of 2010 net profit of 6.7533 million yuan.
TX Irving expects the company in 2010, 2011 and 2012 EPS of 0.54 yuan, 0.67 yuan and 0.80 yuan, corresponding to July 19, 2010 closing price of 13.35 yuan, respectively, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of 25 times, 20 times and 17 times, the company's main business quarter by quarter growth; the same time the competitiveness of our products and further enhance profitability; and the company has to protect the battery business receipts also become a new profit growth point, the company maintained an "overweight" investment rating.
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